PolyU CPCE and The Hong Kong Federation of Insurers Launch Joint Research: “The Determinants of Post-Pandemic Medical Inflation: An Analysis of Private Insurance Claims Data in Hong Kong”

A recent study reveals that Hong Kong’s medical inflation reached 10.3% in 2024, significantly higher than the general inflation rate of 1.7%. On 9 July 2025, PolyU CPCE’s Centre for Ageing and Healthcare Management Research (CAHMR) and The Hong Kong Federation of Insurers (HKFI) held a signing ceremony to launch their first collaborative research project titled “The Determinants of Post-Pandemic Medical Inflation: An Analysis of Private Insurance Claims Data in Hong Kong” .

This joint effort will combine industry data with academic analysis to explore the key factors driving post-pandemic medical cost increases and forecast future healthcare challenges in Hong Kong. The study aims to clarify the structural causes of medical inflation and provide data-driven support for the long-term development of both public and private healthcare systems.

The research will utilise medical insurance claims data collected by HKFI from the industry, comparing medical expenses before the pandemic (2019) and after (2023). Using statistical modelling techniques, the study will quantify the impact of various key factors on healthcare spending. It will examine the drivers behind the surge in private healthcare costs, including population aging, the cost of new medical technologies, and health insurance plan design. The goal is to offer evidence-based recommendations for policymakers and the insurance industry, enabling individuals, employers, insurers, and public institutions to better predict healthcare cost trends, optimise insurance coverage, and improve resource allocation efficiency.

The study is expected to be completed by the end of this year. Upon completion, the findings will be shared with the government, industry, academia, and the public to promote sustainable development of Hong Kong’s healthcare system.

Ms Selina Lau, Chief Executive of HKFI, stated: “Medical inflation not only drives up premium levels but also directly affects the sustainability of the private healthcare system, ultimately impacting the public healthcare sector. It is undeniably a social issue. Through this first collaboration with PolyU CPCE’s CAHMR, we hope to uncover the structural factors behind medical inflation by combining insurance claims data with academic analysis, creating long-term value for the industry, citizens, businesses, authorities, and society at large.”

Prof. Peter Yuen, Dean of PolyU CPCE and a renowned health economist, commented:

“Medical inflation is a growing concern, especially in the post-pandemic era where the issue has become more complex. This study is grounded in real industry data and uses statistical models to analyse the impact of various factors on healthcare costs. It will help clarify long-standing assumptions about medical expense trends. We hope the results will provide concrete evidence to support more effective healthcare policies and resource planning, driving sustainable progress in Hong Kong’s healthcare system.”

The signing ceremony was officiated by Prof. Yuen and Mr Yuman Chan, Chairman of HKFI’s Task Force on Sustainability of Medical Insurance. Guests included Dr Ben Fong,  Professor of Practice at PolyU’s Faculty of Health and Social Sciences and Director of CAHMR, Ms Selina Lau, Chief Executive of HKFI, and Ms Orchis Li, Deputy Chairman of HKFI’s Task Force on Sustainability of Medical Insurance.